Fifty Years Explaining Economics to America with Paul Solman
Paul Solman (PBS NewsHour, eight Emmys, five Peabodys) has spent half a century translating markets and economics for millions. But this conversation isn't about predictions or portfolios. It's about how to think when you can't know what's coming.
The U.S. economy is hundreds of millions of moving parts changing their minds constantly. Financial markets multiply that complexity exponentially. Trying to predict any of it with certainty? Impossible. But that's not surrender—it's realism. The alternative to prediction isn't paralysis. It's strategy.
Listen or Watch
Choose your platform:
Apple Podcasts | Spotify | YouTube | Podbean
What We Cover in This Conversation
Why the three-body problem makes prediction impossible
Paul's framework: costs vs benefits, current and prospective, with uncertainty
Transaction costs of worry matter as much as financial costs of preparation
Why he doesn't watch TV news despite working in television for 50 years
Russian immigrant parents, family tragedy, and becoming a "pathological explainer"
Four practices for staying sane: protect your amygdala, be here now, maximize every moment, recognize there's more good than bad
The American Exchange Project: sending high school seniors to entirely different American communities
Why small acts of human kindness aren't soft—they're foundational
What historians can and can't know about events that already happened
Emergency preparedness through cost-benefit analysis, not panic
Key Takeaways
Economic prediction is a three-body problem. With hundreds of millions of moving parts constantly changing their minds, claiming to know what happens next is hubris. The sophistication lies in building strategies that work across multiple scenarios.
Transaction costs extend beyond money. "If it's a small enough difference—say, a few thousand dollars—then I go, I'm not gonna worry about it. The transaction cost of thinking about it is too high. Too little time left. Too few weekends."
Economics is decision-making about everything. From buying a generator to structuring portfolios to choosing how to live. Paul keeps Vermeer's "Woman Holding a Balance" on his desk—behind her hangs the Last Judgment. The scales metaphor extends to life itself.
Media consumption requires deliberate protection. Paul has worked in television for 50 years but doesn't watch TV news. "I know my amygdala is too vulnerable to the stimuli presented by the media." He reads curated sources instead—protecting agency while maintaining understanding.
Small acts compound civilizationally. Human kindness—eye contact with everyone from World Bank presidents to janitors, sharing compliments with strangers—isn't frivolous. It's how societies sustain themselves.
There's more good in the world than bad. Cultivating this belief and acting accordingly creates positive feedback loops. Getting together for lunch matters. Passing along a compliment to a mutual friend matters.
Timestamps
00:00 - Introduction: Russian immigrant parents and family tragedy
06:00 - Becoming a "pathological explainer" when nobody cared about economics
15:00 - The three-body problem: why prediction is impossible
17:00 - "I have no ***** idea what's gonna happen"
19:00 - Strategy over prediction: costs and benefits framework
25:00 - Transaction costs of worry exceed financial costs
27:00 - Why he doesn't watch TV news despite 50 years in television
32:00 - American Exchange Project: transforming high school seniors
38:00 - Rapid-fire Proust Questionnaire
About Paul Solman
Paul Solman has been business and economics correspondent for PBS NewsHour since 1985, where he created Making Sense. His 50-year career in broadcast journalism has earned him eight Emmy Awards, five Peabody Awards, a Loeb Award, and a James Beard Award (not for cooking).
Paul grew up in a household shaped by tragedy and tremendous love. At 81, he continues explaining markets and economics to millions while serving on the board of the American Exchange Project, sending high school seniors to live in communities entirely different from their own.
His father's assessment still hangs in his office: "You are absurdly fortunate."
Stay Connected
Want insights like this delivered to your inbox?
Twice-monthly analysis on markets, behavioral finance, and wealth strategy. Join 1,000+ subscribers who receive sophisticated thinking without the superfluous complexity.
Share This Episode
Found this valuable? Share it with someone who'd benefit.
Disclaimer
The content of "Treussard Talks" is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Treussard Capital Management or its affiliates. Consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclosures, visit treussard.com.